On the surface, Black Friday is all about short-term performance: the push-push-push of sales. But what if you flip it?
Sally Ritchie
Head of Customers

Your go-to tactics and creatives are ready. You’ve written the Black Friday scenario book. You’ve got one eye on the competition and the whole team involved in daily trading. 

On the surface, Black Friday is all about short-term performance: the push-push-push of sales. But what if you flip it? What if, when you build Peak audiences predictively, you reach incremental audiences and your most valuable customers with long-term purchase potential?

It starts with your audience. The traditional approach (using your CRM to create a seed with past Peak Purchasers) often attracts one-and-done customers. These are the people who are unlikely to shop again out of sale and much more likely to drive up your CPA.

 

Now – enter Predictive.

With a 60% higher average predicted value than its CRM sister, Programmai’s Predictive Seeds use a fresh stream of first-party customer data that continuously refreshes. That’s the beauty: dynamic audiences that change just as your customers do.

When you segment based on real-time predictive values, Black Friday and Cyber Monday no longer need to be a lot of work for short-term reward. It can instead be a window for reaching high-value customers who are already behaving like some of your best.

Read on for tried-and-tested strategies to maximise your Reach, Performance and/or Incrementality over the coming months and close 2021 on a high.

First, let’s take Reach …

 

How to create lookalikes and target existing customers over Peak

Strategy 1: Reach

When to use:

  • You want to increase Reach to new relevant Peak Acquisition audiences 
  • Segment your existing customer base to allow more control with spend/bidding depending on their lifetime value and likelihood to purchase 
  • Flexible budgets over peak 

Lookalike formulas:

  • Approach 1: Create multiple lookalikes of Past Peak Purchasers x combinations of low-high pCLV (predicted customer lifetime value)
  • Approach 2: Create multiple lookalikes of Customers with low-high pConv (predicted conversion to buy)
  • Approach 3: Segment Existing Customers by pCLV and pConv

 

Strategy 2: Performance

When to use:

  • You want to manage cost-per-acquisition (CPA) and ROAS – or you want to maximise incremental sales 
  • Less flexible, more fixed budget over peak 
  • Reduce one-and-done customers,  and put more focus on driving repeat purchases 

Lookalike formulas:

  • Approach 1: Create multiple lookalikes of Past Peak Purchasers x combinations of medium-high pCLV
  • Approach 2: Create multiple lookalikes of Customers with medium-high pConv
  • Approach 3: Segment Existing Customers by pCLV and pConv
    • For incrementality, focus on those with low-mid pConv and exclude those with a high likelihood to convert
    • To maximise ROAS and lower CPA, focus on those highly likely to convert

 

Predictive targeting

Here’s another way to visualise your audiences across lookalike seeds and existing customer segmentation. 

How we’ve labelled the quadrant:

  • 🔥 Hot: Focus on this area to drive performance and/or reach. Max spend.
  • ☀️ Warm: These are your key audiences over Peak, who need to be aware of Black Friday deals. Mid spend.
  • ❄️ Cold: Still worth reaching with sales messaging. No spend or low spend; reinvest into Hot/Warm audiences.

 

How to create Predictive Peak audiences in Programmai

1. Log into the Programmai App. Select the tag ‘Peak Audience’ in Custom Audiences. Then filter predictions across likelihood to convert (pConv) and predictive lifetime value (pCLV) to create your Lookalike Seed.

2. Follow the same steps for Existing Customer segments. Remember to note the size of the audience. For exact targeting and a valid lookalike seed, aim for >1000 users matched in the platform. This will give you more flexibility over your budget and more control over the outcome.

3. Name your audience segments. Sync to Business Manager or Google Ads in a couple of clicks.

4. Create Lookalikes from your predictive seeds in Facebook. For Google, Similar Audiences will populate automatically. For optimal set-up, check your audience overlap. If the audience overlap is higher than 50%, combine your audiences into one ad set. If not, set up standalone audiences. 

5. Set up campaigns across the ad platforms (Facebook, Snap, Display, YouTube, Search and Shopping). It’s time to go live!

6. Monitor performance and optimise based on your goal (Reach, CPA, ROAS or incrementality). Use your customers’ pCLV or pConv as levers to scale your campaigns up and down.

 

Reaching the Peak predictively

Adding Predictive Audiences to the mix means leaving no stone unturned.

You haven’t forgotten your existing customers, especially your highest-value segments. Equally, you’re putting your brand in front of new customers who are already showing signs of shopping again in the quieter months.

Just like that, you’ve got the whole predictive package.

 

… get more control over targeting with Programmai

Programmai is the predictive marketing platform that helps you reach new and existing customers at scale. 

We connect your first-party data and make it intelligent in transit, so that you can generate scientific uplift from your advertising and play the long game. (The world’s leading businesses do.)

Find out more about our platform here.

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